Optimally Positioned for Global Macro Themes/Trends
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GCM Fund positions for both long-term themes/ trends, as well as shorter-term counter-trends.
- US equity markets are at, or close to, a secular peak in valuation akin to 1968 and 2000 levels, after which a ‘lost decade’ can be expected where markets mostly trade sideways with large retracements.
- Lower U.S. and global growth — PMIs were weakening prior to Coronavirus.
- Lower inflation over next 12 months. Any supply-shock inflation will be transitory.
- Low real rates will persist due to increasing US fiscal deficit and debt load.
By end of this decade, we expect to see the next secular bear market for bonds (falling prices/rising yields).
Structurally weaker US dollar, despite brief rally.
- Commodities will primarily trend lower over time due to technology advances and productivity growth.
Longer term — we anticipate a bull market in copper 2024-2030 due to green tech demand and lack of mine supply, Secular gold bull market is not over.
Near term — we expect lower crude oil and copper prices over the next 3-9 months due to rapidly declining global growth.
Agricultural commodities must be evaluated individually since weather plays a large role in supply/demand factors.